What the strategy is, who it is for, and what it asks of you
The whole idea in one pass: end-of-day signals on MES or ES futures, about two to five trades a year, and the two audiences it is built for — a small account being grown, or a rules-based component in a larger portfolio.
Six things decide whether a backtest means anything: the data, the rules, the position sizing, the costs, the execution assumption — and what the result has to show. The second half shows how the AVALONPLUS backtester handles each of them.
What you would actually be trading, and how the position size is derived
If you hold an ETF and have never traded a future: ownership and dividends, what margin really is, initial and maintenance margin, the point value of the Micro and the E-mini, leverage and why it is much smaller in practice, expiry and the roll, and where the costs sit. Same market — the instrument is what changes.
Where the stop distance comes from: the worst adverse excursion the rules ever ran through, plus a gap buffer — instead of a percentage picked because it sounds prudent. There is a free position size calculator for it.
Same rules, same signals — the question is how much of the account trades them
Full size puts the whole account behind every position — the fastest compounding the rules allow, and the largest declines. 50/50 puts half behind it and leaves the rest in cash. Which mode fits which account, and what each one costs.
The little brother of full size, measured against the thing most people already own: what it returned, what happened in the four crises in the data, and what it asks of you. The tables are on the ETF alternative page.
The same three questions, answered in under a minute each
All performance figures shown in these videos are hypothetical backtest results, not a live track record. Trading futures involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for every investor. Past performance — real or simulated — does not guarantee future results. This is educational content, not investment advice. Narration in the videos is synthesized.